Marching Towards Third Largest economy and Beyond - 1
Bharat has one of the largest AI talent pool but harnessing this potential is the key. Bharat is well positioned to lead the global dialogue on AI safeguards with positive regulation. — Vinod Johri
In the vast landscape of global economies, Bharat stands out with its meteoric rise and unwavering determination to reach new heights. With its rich cultural heritage and a population of over 1.4 billion people, Bharat has emerged as an economic powerhouse, consistently showcasing its prowess on the global stage. The year 2023 has proven to be a turning point as Bharat’s GDP surges, solidifying its position as a frontrunner in the global economic race.
Bharat is ranked 5th in world’s GDP rankings in 2024. Our economy boasts of diversity and swift growth, fuelled by key sectors such as information technology, services, agriculture, and manufacturing. The nation capitalises on its broad domestic market, a youthful and technologically adept labour force, and an expanding middle class. It is further expected to be the world’s third largest economy in the next three years.
In this article, we unravel the intricacies of Bharat’s GDP growth in 2024. We will delve into the numbers for the sake of authenticity, explore the driving forces behind this remarkable achievement, and gain insights into the implications for Bharat’s future. Honestly, Bharat is likely to reach the 3rd spot in the global economies but will be distant third after US and China until we achieve 9-10% growth rate for at least three decades. The challenges from US and China have also to be identified and addressed.
The year 2023 was not a happy one for the world. The global economic slowdown showed scant signs of leaving us, amid two major wars and the long shadow of three successive waves of Covid impacting millions of jobs, decimating thousands of MSMEs and disrupting supply chains. The Union Government announced a slew of measures to support businesses through the pandemic, as a part of its Rs. 20 Lakh Crores Atmanirbhar Bharat package, financial succour to MSMEs in the form of collateral free loans or an impetus to manufacture through production linked incentive schemes. Navigating Bharat through this tumultuous phase was not a trifling job. The aura of unpredictability and bold decisions of the Modi Government proved advantageous in the crisis ridden times. Amid the global strife and rubble, the Prime Minister Shri Modi emerged with a rare double credit for his masterful handling of issues on the domestic front and international stage, making him the cynosure of the globe. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not the one to focus solely on immediate exigency, in a crisis, he sees the opportunity to reach far horizons. He went for the multiplier effect of boosting Bharat’s infrastructure in Budget 2023 with Rs. 10 Lakh crore (Rs. 11.11 crore in Interim Budget 2024).
The bounce back from Covid-induced 5.8% contraction in GDP in FY 21 to a 9% and 7.2% growth, respectively, in the next two years bears testimony to the resilience in the economy. For Financial year 2024-25, the Centre expects growth to 7.3%, maintaining Bharat’s position as one of the fastest growing economies in the world, a striking fact when seen in the context of a phase of low single digit growth in many large nations. Bharat needs to grow much faster to create the millions of jobs the country needs every year.
Epochal Decisions
The major decisions of the Modi Government massively changed the course of economy and the polity. One Nation, One Tax i.e. GST, after teething troubles have been successfully implemented across the nation with mammoth increase in revenue.
The other major achievements of the Modi Government substantiating Bharat’s steady March towards the third biggest economy are epochal. In May 2023, PM Modi ji inaugurated a new Parliament building, designed to accommodate the expansion in seats and the other demands of the House for the full century and more. The construction was completed in record time of 28 months.
In December 2023, the Government repealed a raft of out-dated colonial laws. The new laws - Bhartiya Nagrik Suraksha Sanhita 2023, Bhartiya Nyay Sanhita and Bharat Sakshya Adhiniyam 2023 - enhance penalties of crimes such as terrorism, lynching and offences jeopardising national security.
In September 2023, the 27 year long wait for women’s reservation in legislatures ended when the Government pushed through the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam - the Constitution (128th Amendment) Bill 2023 in Parliament that seeks to reserve one-third of seats in Lok Sabha and State Legislatures.
PM Shri Modi ji rode high on the success of the G20 summit in Delhi on September 9-10, 2023, establishing its position as “Voice of the Global South”. Despite the deep divisions over Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Bharat got other nations on board and pulled off the New Delhi Declaration, without explicitly mentioning the divisive issue.
Indo-US partnership witnessed historic moments - from President Biden’s support for a jet engine deal in September 2023, the January launch of the Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) initiative for strategic security and technology co-operation, record breaking bilateral trade, to ease export regulations.
On December 11, 2023, the Supreme court upheld the Government’s August 2019 move to abrogate Article 370, which conferred special status on Jammu and Kashmir. The court validation brought a legal closure to the decades-old contentious issue.
At COP28 that ended in Dubai in December 2023, PM Modiji secured a win for Bharat and the developing economies. Bharat advocated against rigid targets, ensuring flexibility in achieving the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030.
Construction of Shri Ram Janmbhoomi Mandir in Ayodhya Dham in record 21 months and Ram Lala’s Pran Pratishtha on 22nd January 2024, are the historical events not just for Bharat but for the Global Hindus.
Science & Technology Research
In August 2023, Bharat achieved a historical milestone by successfully landing Chandrayaan - 3 on Moon’s South pole, the first nation to do so. It has also opened up its space domain to private enterprises with the new Space policy.
Aditya-L1 Mission is Bharat’s first solar mission planned by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). It is ISRO’s second space-based astronomy mission after AstroSat for a scientific expedition to study the Sun.
Gaganyaan is a mission by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) to demonstrate human space flight capability by sending a manned mission to an orbit of 400 km for three days and bringing them safely back to Earth.On February 27, 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicised the final shortlist of candidates to be astronauts on board the maiden human spaceflight mission — called Gaganyaan of ISRO. Assuming two important test flights this year and the next are successful, the first crewed flight of the mission is scheduled for 2025.
Bharat successfully tested new age AGNI-5 ballistic missile. The Agni 5 missile is capable of firing three warheads simultaneously with different velocities to evade the ballistic missile defence of the adversary. The test marks a long-awaited upgrade of Bharat’s missile system and significantly enhances its strike capability, including nuclear option.
Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence is another technological revolution of the newest age. For Bharat, AI offers the promise of leapfrogging technology and the potential to quicken the pace of the development. The ultimate goal is to make AI more powerful for everyone, everywhere in the world. Bharat will play a significant role in helping make sure AI is built responsibly. We are still in very early stages of a shift that will drive new waves of innovation, accelerate economic progress and create opportunities for the people. Bharat has the opportunity to jump and develop the next generation of the solutions, similar to what it has done with digital payments. Its accessibility across languages means AI can revolutionise everything from public services to education, healthcare and agriculture. The transformers, a ground breaking class of AI algorithms, trained on large swaths of text are termed as Large Language Models (LLMs), can engage with almost any form of human knowledge. Projections indicate that AI will inject$ 967 billion into our economy by 2035. It is also projected that 85% of the organisations will create new AI jobs in the next 1-5 years and enhance existing roles. There is an urgent need to nurture an array of essential skills beyond technical proficiency to build adaptability in the workforce. The Government should commit to training at least 50 million people in digital skills over the next 5 years. In a diverse country like ours, Generative - Artificial intelligence with minimal bias can create a level playing field for millions. The Government is the biggest beneficiary of AI technologies in agri-tech, health-tech, logistics, cybersecurity, surveillance, training, taxation and defence. The challenge for our country is the severe shortage of data sources from here in Generative AI models. Transparency, regulation and digital literacy are critical. The sophistication of AI-powered propaganda makes it increasingly difficult to discern truth from fiction, posing a threat to informed decision - making. Intellectual property case decisions from the US and other jurisdictions will impact AI innovations and adaptation. Despite all these challenges, Bharat has one of the largest AI talent pool but harnessing this potential is the key. Bharat is well positioned to lead the global dialogue on AI safeguards with positive regulation.
In the next article, the strength of pillars of our economy will further be discussed. The US and Chinese economies have different strengths and challenges which should also be considered while marching ahead in shaping our economy.
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