Population Imbalance

To achieve the population balance and upgrade future population from the point of view of economic, education and social standards, population policy can play a significant role. Some legal provisions to limit the family size can also provide a solution to the same. — Dr. Ashwani Mahajan

According to a recent report released by the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC), the share of the majority Hindu population in the total population has decreased by 7.82 percent, whereas the share of Muslim population has increased by 43.15 percent, since 1950 till the year 2015. The report further says that in host of other countries also, where majority population was Non-Muslim, their share has declined and the share of minority population which is Muslim has increased. This trend was seen in Myanmar and Nepal. In Pakistan and Bangladesh where majority itself is Muslim, its share has increased. That is, the question is not of increasing population of minorities, but of increasing Muslim population in the world, the effect of which is being seen in most of the countries of the world including Europe.

If we talk of India only, where the share of Hindu population was 84.68 percent in 1950, it decreased to only 78.06 percent by 2015, while during the same period the share of Muslim population increased from 9.84 percent in 1950 to 14.09 percent in 2015.

It may be recalled that overall population of India has increased from 36.1 crores in 1951 to 132.29 crores in 2015, and likewise population of all communities including Hindu, Muslims, Sikhs, Christians has also increased. However, rate of growth of Muslim population has exceeded that of all other ethnic groups. Whereas, Hindu population increased from 30.57 crores in 1951 to 82.75 crores in 2001 (annual growth rate of 2.0 percent); Muslim population increased from 3.55 crores to 13.8 crores (showing a huge annual growth rate of 2.75 percent); population of Sikhs increased from 0.69 crores to 1.94 crores and Cristians from 0.83 crores to 2.41 crores, showing annual growth rates of 2.09 percent and 2.15 percent respectively in these 50 years. Some people argue that the pace of Muslim population growth has slowed down in the last two decades. Though, it’s true that population growth rates for different ethnic groups between 2001 and 2015, has declined; but Muslim population growth continues to be way ahead of other religious groups. We see rate of population growth of Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs and Christians to be 1.61, 2.17, 1.68 and 1.82 respectively.

Most important take away from this report is that whereas, not only in India but in the whole world, a narrative was being spread, that minorities, especially Muslims, are suppressed and persecuted in India. But data totally refutes such narrative.

General Changes in India’s Demography

It is worth mentioning that the total fertility rate in India was 5.9 in 1951, which decreased to 4.80 in 1981 and to 2.56 in 2011. According to the recent data, the total fertility rate in India has reached 2.12 in 2024. It is worth mentioning that according to demographic theory, when the total fertility rate of a country falls below 2.1, the population of that country starts declining after some time. Therefore, the fertility rate reaching 2.12 is an alarm bell for India’s population.

Due to the continuous decline in the total fertility rate in India for some time now, it is now becoming clear that we have reached a situation from where the actual population will start decreasing after some time. It is worth noting that such a situation has already reached in China. Many countries of Europe too are going through the same situation. After Africa, India was also among those few countries where the population has been increasing, but now fear of decline in population, is being expressed in India as well.

But in such a situation, the publication of PMEAC report also indicates that even though the total population will keep declining in the coming time, but in that too, the population of Hindus, which is already declining proportionately, may start declining in absolute numbers, while Muslim population may continue to increase. We can say that loss of Hindu population would mostly be the gain of Muslim population.

Population of Educated Class Destined to Go Down

From census and other reports it’s clear that the total fertility rate among illiterate and less educated women is still 3.17 in 2011. But the fertility rate among women, who are graduate or above was 1.62 in 1991, declined to 1.40 in 2011 and there is every possibility of further fall in the same after 2011 also. Likewise, even other educated women less than graduates, also tend to have lower fertility rates.

If we compare different religious groups in terms of education, it is evident that the Muslim community is still far more backward than Hindus and hence the possibility is that while Muslim population may continue to increase, while Hindu population may start declining. It is worth mentioning that according to the 2001 census, while the literacy rate among Hindus was 65.8 percent, among Muslims its only 59.1 percent. If we talk about higher education, we see that in the age group of 18 to 25 years, the number of graduates and more educated people in the Muslim community was only 6.7 percent, while among Hindus it was 12.5 percent in 2001. Given the relationship between education and TFR, we can intuitively say that less educated Muslim women give birth to more children, while the fertility rate is lower in more educated women. That is, the increase in Muslim population and decrease in Hindu population can also be explained by the difference in level of education between Hindus and Muslims.

How to bring Balance

There is a general belief that Muslims tend to have larger families because of their traditions, philosophy and religious beliefs. In the past even poor Hindus used to have the belief that children are gift of God, however Muslims due to their economic and educational backwardness, continue to believe the same (that is, children are gift of God).

We have seen that with economic prosperity, educational development and advances in annual medical science and expansion of health services, birth rate, death rate and natural rate of growth of population all have been declining. Difference in educational and economic standards in different ethnic groups also explain difference in fertility rate and population growth in different ethnic groups.

Population imbalance, needs to be corrected. Following are a few suggestions:

First, there is an urgent need to upgrade our population, especially Muslim population, educationally. This can help in reducing TFR and therefore rate of growth of population.

Secondly, there can still be a possibility that, till we reach high education standards, or even after that population may continue to increase due to religious beliefs and psychology; to deal with the same we may use fiscal incentives and disincentives to achieve demographic goals and uplift public health.

Thirdly, for sometime a debate on Population Policy has been going on. To achieve the population balance and upgrade future population from the point of view of economic, education and social standards, population policy can play a significant role. Some legal provisions to limit the family size can also provide a solution to the same.  

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