New realities of governance

With a coalition government at the Centre and strong opposition in the new Lok Sabha, the ruling party will have to be more accommodating and democratic in its legislative and governance practices. Frictions will have to be tactfully handled. — KK Srivastava

Results of 2014 elections, giving BJP simple majority, prematurely seemed to hint that the coalition era of past nearly 25 years may be behind us. Come 2019 and BJP gets 303 seats, again erroneously suggesting that Indian polity was heading for a unipolar moment. The Congress, with state level alliances failed miserably, except in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Not to forget, however, that regional parties including Trinamool. YSCRP, BRS, BJP, BSP, and Samajwadi party could find decent representation, having survived Modi wave. 

But 2024 is entirely different. The BJP, on its own, was 32 seats shorter than a simple majority. The NDA, a coalition, is forming the government. On the other side, the INDIA bloc, an expanded version of the erstwhile UPA, has wrested 235 MPs, promising a strong opposition. The polity has turned bipolar, with voters backing two strong coalitions. Significantly political parties that opted out of any alliance failed to make any impression-look at the seat tally of BJD, BRS, YSCRP, BSP, etc. Some of them might even face an existential crisis. And there would be only 16 independents in the present Lok Sabha. On the other hand partners in coalition, INDIA bloc or NDA, Like TDP, JDU, JDS, Shiv Sena, NCP, etc. will have good representation in the Parliament. Conclusion: Perhaps in the would of ideological polarization the electorate demands clarity has regards a party’s standing. Coalition is the name of the game, at the centre it is perhaps part of the natural political order for India, and the 2014-2024 period was likely an aberration. Excluding these 10 years, since 1989 India has been governed by coalition governments (direct, or, implicit).

2014 vote was a vote for change essentially in the background of charges of corruption on then existing Congress led government. BJP could consolidate and gained more seats in 2019, thanks to its good governance, but also on nationalism plank after Pulwama and Balakot. But this years in what can be termed as normal elections shorn of any emotive issues, the BJP failed to hit its target; the governance and local issues occupied the mental landscape of the voter, and the ruling party failed to convince enough voters to let it sail on its own in this election; it fell short of the majority mark by 32 seats. Not to forget, however, that the BJP led NDA has formed the government the third time.

Conditions favour coalition governments at the centre. In eleven states regional parties have a substantial presence. These states account for 347 Lok Sabha seats. There are 10 states where local parties either never had a heft or have declined. These states have representation on 169 seats. Together, these 21 states matter on more than 500 seats of Lok Sabha. Earlier, the loss of Congress was a major contributory factor in BJP hitting good scores in 2014 and 2019. But this time INDIA alliance worked, most notably in UP, Maharashtra and some other states. The fact that the Congress has gained significant credibility among its ally regional parties (and in turn it is willing to give them more space) points towards the fact that coalitions are the natural order. Likewise, things would have been very difficult for the BJP had the JDU and TDP not come to the rescue of the majority party. Given this, the BJP has to adopt and adapt to the coalition politics and compromises. 

Understandably there are worries among the stake holders, bureaucrats, financial markets, economists …. That the pace of reforms will be affected now. However, the past record of coalition governance (Narsimha Rao, Bajpai, Manmohan Singh) point to the contrary: coalition governments have a good record of implementing reforms. A lot of it will depend on how the new NDA government moves forward. And, equally importantly, how responsibly the strengthened opposition behaves. By no means the task would be easy, however.

To begin with, it is fair for coalition partners to demand ministries they prefer and in disproportionate number. And yet, they know their limits. Understandably coalition cannot be pushed to a breaking point; who wants to fight expensive elections that have surprises inbuilt prematurely? Contesting elections is both expensive and fraught with uncertainly. Ministerial preferences are an outcome of the desire to exercise huge executive power (home), control of finance (finance), provision of employment (Railways), return on political investment (defence, infrastructure), etc. Politicians don’t think merely in terms of contributing towards serving the interests of the nation; their individual survival precedes the nation’s interest most times. But then politics, as famously said by Bismarck, is the art of possible. Coalition dharma has to be practiced by all the partners. Indeed Modi has shown how is the boss while allocating ministries and no one as demurred.  

However, that may not be the only worry for the present regime. Having read the current political landscape the opposition INDIA block, for the moment, has restrained from staking a claim in government formation; the political climate was not conducive. It would have, if at all, resulted in foisting an unstable administration on the nation. But have no illusions. Indubitably it shall bide its time until it can put (or attempt to, at least), the NDA regime on the mat. It will continue to lure away JDU and TDP, incessantly attempting to sow seeds of disaffection between the BJP and these two parties which anyway have love hate relationship between them. This will have a positive outcome too. The NDA government led by Modi would be restrained from toeing majoritarian line. But then the flip side may be that it may have to excessively accommodate the alliance partners, at times even compromising on basic premises on which the party fought election (think uniform civil code, quota for Muslims). This will be a letdown for the BJP.

In a healthy democracy a strong opposition is as crucial as a capable government. A brute majority may lead to hubris, as seen during the 2024 elections. BJP failed to read the undercurrents with local issues, economic miseries, and the power of minority votes going against it. A responsible opposition must offer constructive criticism and come up with credible and viable alternatives. It is to be seen if the INDIA bloc in opposition will stick together and perform the role of a constructive critique by playing the parliamentary role with finesse, instead of indulging in creating unnecessary road blocks for the government which is attempting to steer the nation towards attaining political heft and economic prosperity.

We will have to wait and watch how the tide turns.     

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