Worrying declining total fertility rate (TFR) amongst the educated class (Resolution-1, NCM, Lucknow, UP, 28-30 June 24)

According to demographic theories, if the total fertility rate falls below 2.1 then the population in the country will start decreasing in future. By Total Fertility Rate (TFR) we mean the average number of children born to women in a population in their lifetime.

After experiencing population explosion between 50s and 80s; now our nation is going through, a decline in fertility rate, especially among educated class, which may have long term implications in the size, composition and quality of population.

We know that medical development precedes economic development. Due to this, the birth rate in the country decreases at a very slow pace, but the death rate starts decreasing rapidly. But after 1980s, the rate of decline in birth rate also accelerated; hence the natural rate of population growth also started declining. Decline in death rate, especially infant mortality rate, came to us as a blessing, and as a result, a new opportunity also arose for the country. Due to decreasing infant mortality rate, those children who attained youth-hood, after a few years and the youth population in the country started increasing continuously. If we take the data of 2001, then the population of youth (age group of 15 to 34 years) in the country was 33.80 percent of the total population, which increased to 34.85 percent in 2011 and currently it has reached more than 35.3 percent of the total population.

If we estimate the total number of youth, it becomes clear that today India has the largest number of youth in comparison to any other country. The youth population, can contribute more to the development of the country. Today everyone is talking about taking advantage of this demographic dividend and taking the country on the path of progress. Today most economists agree that population in the country is not a burden if used judiciously. There is a need that we make full and efficient use of our youth power.

Fear of population decline

The natural rate of population growth has gone below zero in most of the developed countries of the world. That means now the population in these countries has started decreasing. In these countries, the fertility rate is indicating towards decline in the natural rate of population growth. Today, in few countries of Asia- China, Japan, South Korea and many countries of Europe like Germany and France, TFR has become a major problem. The Governments of these countries have started many schemes to provide incentives for having more children. Almost a similar situation is now happening in India. According to government data, the gross fertility rate in the country has reached 1.99 in the year 2019-21. In such a situation, there may be a decrease in population in the coming time.

The real question is not much about the decline in the total fertility rate, there is a more serious concern that in some sections it has reduced much more and in some sections it is also increasing.

It is noteworthy that the fertility rate among illiterate women first increased from 3.33 in 1991 to 3.36 in 2001 and later it decreased to 3.17 in 2011, but among educated women (graduate and above), this fertility rate has been consistently declining. It was 1.62 in 1991 to 1.40 in 2011. A similar signal is also being received from women educated above matriculation but not graduate, whose fertility rate declined from 2.08 in 1991 to 1.77 by 2011.

These figures bring to mind that the fertility rate is still high among mostly illiterates and this fertility rate has decreased significantly among the educated and more advantaged people. That is, those people who can impart better education to their children and a better life in other ways, the fertility rate is low and those who are not able to provide better education and a better life in other ways to their children, the fertility rate is low. If the rate is low and falling, this situation indicates a change in the population composition, towards worst, in the future. Further, we see that in some religious communities, fertility rate is keeping high, due to their lower education levels and cultural reasons.

Nowadays, a new thinking is emerging in urban areas, which is more prevalent among the educated and highly educated people and people of high income group. This thinking is inspired by the consumerist thinking of the West. Working couples in cities are now aspiring to live a more independent and luxurious life instead of raising a family.

The institution of family has had a special importance in Indian society since the beginning. Parents, along with their children and after the marriage of those children, their children, all have been enjoying natural happiness while living as a family. But for some time now, the trend of joint families is gradually on decline and not only this, the trend of married children living with their parents is also decreasing.

Nowadays, with the trend of nuclear families, some young couples no longer want to stay in the bond of marriage. In most of these types of couples, there is no reason to pursue a family. But even among the youth who get married, many are not interested in raising the family further. Due to all such reasons, fewer children are being born among the educated youth, that is, the fertility rate among educated women is continuously decreasing. It has been observed that a large family helps in providing a permanent prosperity and happiness to any family. Large family becomes a cause for any family’s social security, cultural security and its stability. The same thing applies to a country as a country is an extended family of society.

Rashtriya Parishad of Swadeshi Jagran Manch, Lucknow, 28-29-30 June, expresses concerns about continuously declining fertility rate among educated women. We understand that this trend is a reflection of the changing beliefs in the society that the fertility rate among educated women is decreasing rapidly, while the decline in fertility rate among less educated women is very less. This emerging situation in demography does not bode well for the rising level of population in the country.

There is a greater possibility that a large percentage of children in less resource-rich families remain illiterate and poor. In such a situation, contraction of more educated population and expansion of uneducated and less educated population can bring down the quality of population. 

Government and society has to think how TFR rate less than 2.0 can adversely affect its economic future and social and cultural development. Rashtriya Parishad of Swadeshi jagran Manch calls upon the society at large and the government, to deliberate, and find solutions towards this unwarranted trends in size, composition and quality of population.

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